All of the talk has been about Valentino, fair enough. But what struck me most about those final championship positions? What was the biggest suprise?
It was this: Edwards scored sixty two points aboard the Aprilia! He was wrestling that thing about (and let's face it, the bike is a bitch), but he still notched up a string of point-scoring finishes. His World Superbike combatant Bayliss managed sixth aboard the Ducati, though some DNFs prevented his achieving a position that would reflect his and the bike's ability.
Everyone was amazed at how good the Ducati was - remember this was its first season after a very short development time (they didn't even announce the engine configuration until February 2002). They secured one victory, nine podium finishes, three pole positions and 14 front-row starts. How do those Italian chaps do it? Lots of fags (aka cigarettes), wine and divine inspiration. After all, God rides a Ducati ;-)
Meanwhile Suzuki effectively share the booby prize with Kawasaki. Neither team has gone in the right direction, and it must be hard for Roberts to see ex-team mate Gibernau going so well on a Honda. Both teams need to improve drastically. Lap times were often no better than last year, or in Suzuki's case, those on the RGV500. That is depressing.
So we have 2004 with Rossi on a Yamaha. Sure, it will be a challenge, though with the right attention the bike could be a race winner. Everyone compares his move with Mick Doohan's reluctance to jump ship in the 90's. Is it the same? I don't think so, I think Valentino may have a harder job.
Back then the two-strokes - particularly the Honda and Yamaha - were nearer in performance than some would have you believe. The biggest difference was the rider. Mick was that much better than everyone else that he would have won on a Yamaha. Rainey knew it, Mick knew it, anyone with any nous knew it. So why bother? He had nothing to prove.
Valentino is not Mick. However, the Yamaha has not been exploited properly this year, between Melandri's pre-season injury and a mysteriously off form Checa. Carlos seems to have lost his edge (he was always a little unpredictable and only truly on form at Spanish circuits), and I don't think he will get it back. He will now be in Rossi's shadow. When you're an up and coming rider, like Hayden (2003 Rookie of the Year), that's a great place to be. When a rider has been in GPs as long as Carlos without much to show it demonstrates he doesn't quite have what it takes.
2004 Prediction
Edwards and Hayden will be serious title contenders in 2004. The title could be a three-way Honda duel between the two Americans and Gibernau, and Loris Capirossi could make life difficult for them at times. Barros may return to the fore if he gets to ride a Honda. Rossi? He will be there, but he will not win so easily any more.